SZALINSKI'S SUMMARY: State revenue continues to smash budgeted expectations for the first quarter of the fiscal year, with September finishing 10% ahead of the same month a year ago.
But even as fiscal year 2027 is $1 billion — or 8.2% — ahead of last year’s pace, the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability warns several factors could soon reduce this robust growth — including the fact that $265 million in assumed revenue is tied up in the courts.
WHY IT MATTERS: State lawmakers approved an FY27 budget that assumed revenue would decrease by 0.6%. COGFA’s analysts wrote in their September report that the pace thus far is "well above the growth rate needed to achieve the budget projection."
Here's where coffers are performing well
CORPORATE TAXES: Taxes paid by businesses are up a whopping 60%, or $556 million, in the first three months of FY27. Analysts say more information is needed to see exactly why this is happening. But it’s probably at least partially caused by better-than-expected profits, state policy changes designed to collect more taxes from businesses and an overall comparison to a weak FY26 for corporate taxes.
SALES TAXES: Consumer taxes are up $282 million, or 10.1%, so far this year. That includes an 8.1% increase in September. It's the fifth straight month of growth for this source, largely thanks to higher prices.
TRANSFERS: Transfers into the General Revenue Fund increased by $79 million, largely because of a $51 million transfer from the Income Tax Refund Fund — an indicator of past-year income tax performance.
But that's where the caution starts. That's the only transfer from that fund expected this year, and it pales in comparison to last year’s $700 million transfer. Analysts said that effect will show up on the October and November reports.